CePI reports 2016 stats

Brussels, Belgium-based Confederation of European Paper Industries (CEPI) issued Preliminary Statistics 2016 in early February.

In summary: 2016 paper and board production in CEPI countries decreased by 0.1% in 2016 compared to 2015, according to preliminary figures. Total production was about 91 million tonnes (Mt). Machine closures in Europe were compensated by new capacities or upgrading of existing ones.

By comparison, US and Canadian production is expected to be down by 1.0% and 1.8% respectively. Output slightly increased in South Korea (+0.5%), whilst it was unchanged in Japan and Brazil compared to 2015. The highest growth rates in paper and board output appear to have been in Russia (+3.8%), India (+2.9%) and China (+2.9%).

According to very first estimates, world paper and board production will be up by 0.8% in 2016 to reach 410 Mt.

The decline in output of graphic grades persists whilst production of packaging grades continues to rise. Weak printing and publishing activities continue to affect the over-all production of graphic grades, which fell by around 3.7%: newsprint is expected to fall about 6.4%; coated mechanical paper and coated woodfree grades reached 7.1% and 5.0% respectively, while uncoated mechanical paper output increased by1.9%. The production of uncoated woodfree grades — mainly office paper — is estimated to have decreased by 1.4%.

Packaging grades are estimated to be up around 2.3%. Case materials increased by 2.2%. Carton board plus other packaging board grew by 2.8%. Wrapping grades used for paper bag production increased about 1.2%. Production is affected by the move towards light-weighting and resource efficiency as it is measured in tonnes. The share of packaging grades accounted for 50.1% (49.0% in 2015) of total paper and board production, with graphic grades accounting for 37.3% (38.8% in 2015).

Sanitary and household manufacturers saw increased output of about 1.8% and accounted for 8.1% of total production. Output of all other grades of paper and board — mainly for industrial and special purposes — increased by 2.8% (4.5% of total production).

Paper and board deliveries by CEPI countries are expected to be down by 0.7%. Based on the cumulative data up to the end of 3Q16, it is expected that total paper and board deliveries for the year were down by 0.7% whilst internal deliveries were stable. By the end of September 2016, deliveries of graphic grades had decreased by 5.6% whilst deliveries of packaging grades rose by 2.9%.

Exports had fallen by 2.9% by the end of September 2016 with the main markets for exports being other European countries, which accounted for about 37% of all exports (36% in the same period of 2015), with about 25% (26% in 2015) to Asian countries, 12% to North America (11% in 2015), 8% to Latin America and 18% to all other countries.

Preliminary indications are that imports of paper and board into the region increased by around 6% compared to 2015. Imports from other European countries accounted for 44% of all imports in the first three quarters of 2015 (46% in the same period 2015). Imports from North America had a share of 30% (29% in 2015), with the remaining 26% split between the other regions — Asia 11%, Latin America 6%, and the Rest of the World 9%.

Over all, paper and board consumption is estimated to increase by 1%. Macroeconomic projections for the euro area foresee annual real GDP up by 1.7% in 2016 and 1.5% in 2017; 1.8% and 1.6% respectively for the EU. Growth in emerging and developing economies is expected to pick up in 2017. Weak investment and productivity growth are, however, weighing on mediumterm prospects across most of these countries.

It is estimated that the production of pulp (integrated + market) increased by 0.7% over 2015, for a total of about 35.6 Mt. Mechanical pulp output increased about1.4%; chemical pulp, about 0.5%; market pulp, about 2.5%.

The utilization of paper for recycling by CEPI members was about 43.2 Mt down by about 0.3% compared to 2015.


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